No.
Market prices can be read as approximate market-implied probabilities, but they are not guarantees.
Prices also reflect liquidity, spreads, fees, market structure, trader behavior, and the risk of uncertainty around the final outcome.
No.
Market prices can be read as approximate market-implied probabilities, but they are not guarantees.
Prices also reflect liquidity, spreads, fees, market structure, trader behavior, and the risk of uncertainty around the final outcome.